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Only when the tide
goes out can you tell who is swimming naked
-Warren Buffet
There is nothing like a bear
market to restore rational thought to the market. Corrections tend to overdo the pessimism just
as bull runs decouple the stock prices from the underlying business
fundamentals. Bear markets, therefore,
are the best times to structure your portfolio.
For one, the prices are the cheapest at this time in the cycle but more
importantly your portfolio allocation in a bear market is likely to more
closely reflect your risk perceptions and appetite. Notice also that the quality of coverage
improves and so do the quality of questions people ask before investing.
This is important. Pay attention to your risk tolerance as well
as how well or badly your portfolio performed vis-à-vis the benchmarks. Risk tolerance has to do with both your
immediate financial strain (do you have to default on any commitments?) and the
emotional duress (this will tell you about your pain threshold). An understanding of both allows you to
structure a portfolio with due regards to risk.
If your portfolio is down 60% when the broader averages are down only
33%, you have clearly been fishing in troubled waters - a clear sign that your
portfolio was overweight at the speculative end of the investment
spectrum. It is a good time to reflect
on why this came to be and if this is the kind of volatility you desire in your
portfolio. Cyclical swings are part of
the equation so you need to be comfortable with both return and risk in your
particular portfolio. No investment can
be judged on the basis of half a cycle alone.
Once you set your allocations
at this time, it would be up to you to hold firm to it. It may not seem likely at this time but the
markets will come back with greater strength, it always does. With that strength will come the temptation
to again chase returns.
Rule # 1 through 10 is to not lose money.