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Finding a good small cap company is a difficult process as
the coverage is limited. To find good
companies in this space that you like takes time and doing. The divergence of performance is high in this
part of the capitalization spectrum, that is, you have to shift through a 100
stocks to find one that you like. The
ratio of the ones you actually invest in is even smaller. So once you find an investment aim to put in
as much as possible because the absolute investment is small. So if you buy a large stake at these prices,
any positive surprise will pay big. Here
you are buying before any credible price discovery thereby leveraging the full
appreciation of equity. This end of the
market is not efficient, so local information counts a lot – there is no
substitute for going and kicking the tires.
The final return is highly dependent on this pre-discovery price.
That does not mean that risk goes down
substantially on whetting or that you are ascribing a greater than average
acumen to your decision, what you are betting on is the portfolio
dynamics. Winners can theoretically go
to infinity but losers can only go to zero.
So as long as you have done some due diligence and the product makes
senses for a growing market, the odds are stacked in your favor!
These investments are akin to buying naked calls, leverage
comes pre-wrapped. Using additional
leverage individually might actually distort the return dynamic. They also have all the other issues that
plague consistent returns. Management
matters a lot. You can’t/ won’t run the
place, so make sure the guy running it knows what he is doing. Accounting shenanigans and management’s
on-the-job-consumption are a big no-no.
To get a strong return, you have to hold on for the long
term, if not you have to contend with reinvestment risk. This is the reason investors like Peter Lynch
and Warren Buffett never sell – you can never tell when the stock is likely to
make its breakout move. This is not
easy. It is like saying that you had to
decide to make the investment anew everyday and you choose it every day! A sell decision is contingent on whether the
security continues to give good returns and just as importantly, what is your
alternative avenue to park the funds.
Remember, the outside view – statistical historic average
would work most times while your emotions will most likely lead you the wrong
way.